Is there any hope for the 2017 gold price increase? of course

Today, the spot gold price trend is still in a downward trend due to the impact of the US economic data and the European Central Bank meeting on the previous trading day. Next week, the financial market will usher in the Fed meeting, and the price of gold may fall again. However, some analysts believe that the price of gold is still There are opportunities for skyrocketing.

Will the price of gold rise?

ICBC Standard Bank: Gold 2017 is up and hope

ICBC Standard Bank analysts said in a report on Thursday that they believe inflation will rise in light of expectations of Trump's new government to increase government spending, and gold prices will trade at $1,160 in the first half of 2017. About ounces. ICBC Standard Bank's gold price forecast for the first half of next year is close to the current gold trading price. On Thursday, gold futures closed at $1,172.40, closing down 0.43%.

2017黄金价格

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates twice next year.

As for the Fed, the Fed may be in a difficult situation next year. ICBC expects the Fed to raise interest rates twice next year. ICBC pointed out that the Fed will have to maintain low interest rates to protect the real estate market, which accounts for 13% of GDP. At the same time, the Fed has had to limit the dollar's rebound to protect manufacturing, which accounts for 12% of US GDP. Naohiro Niimura, a partner at Tokyo-based research firm Market Risk Advisory Co., said that even if the dollar's upward trend does not change, inflation concerns will make gold more attractive than US Treasury bonds, and gold prices will rebound in 2017.

Since the end of the US general election, the overall price trend of gold has shown a weak trend and continues to decline. Niimura believes that with the sale of buyers at the beginning of the year, gold prices are expected to rebound. He pointed out that "the speculative gold purchase price averages around $1,150 per ounce. With inflation concerns next year, investors are more likely to see gold as a better security asset than US Treasury bonds."

However, he added, “Because the US dollar will remain strong, the gold's rise will be milder.” Market Risk expects the average price of spot gold in the second quarter of 2017 to be $1,250 per ounce, and the average price in the fourth quarter is expected to reach 1275. USD/oz.

There are rules for gold to follow. The changes mainly reflect these aspects:

First: When the new US president takes office, there is no doubt that a series of policy games will begin. This is the main source of huge market volatility. The new US president is the first.

Second: look at the situation in Europe, the election of Italy reappears the black swan, followed by the French election, the German election, all the issues directly related to the stability of the euro zone, directly related to the euro, because the euro is connected The US dollar, the world's second-largest currency, has any turmoil, and global capital has to be reconfigured.

Third: The situation in Asia is not particularly good. Japan seems to have been in a situation for so many years. In fact, Abenomics basically has no chance of winning. The final result is definitely a mess. South Korea now has political problems in politics and economic problems. China is mainly a slowdown in economic growth.

Combining these factors, from an operational point of view, investment in 2017 is definitely an unusual year that is characterized by outdated market volatility. Geopolitical instability, European political situation is surging, many countries will enter the general election situation, the possibility of gold rebound is very large.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch said it is currently cautious about the 2017 gold. A stronger dollar and higher bond yields will be the two biggest resistances for gold next year. Naohiro Niimura, a partner at Tokyo-based research firm Market Risk Advisory Co., said that even if the dollar's upward trend does not change, inflation concerns will make gold more attractive than US Treasury bonds, and gold prices will rebound in 2017.

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