Textiles and clothing: "two consecutive drops" pre-shows the step into the adjustment period

"Even two down" indicates that exports entered a period of adjustment --- 2016 National Textile and Apparel Trade Overview

From the performance of textile and apparel exports in each month of 2016, except for the sharp increase in the year-on-year growth in March and the slight increase in April and May, the other months were negative growth.

In recent years, the export prices of major categories of textiles and clothing have shown a downward trend. Between 2012 and 2016, yarn prices fell by 30%, fabrics fell by 9%, and needle woven garments fell by 6.8%.

In recent years, in addition to fabrics, other categories of goods import prices were apparent decline. Between 2012 and 2016, yarn import prices fell by 18.5%, and needle woven garments fell by 34.9%, of which woven garments fell by 46%.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative trade volume of China's textiles and apparels in 2016 was US$290.6 billion, down 6.1% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 267.25 billion US dollars, down 5.9% year-on-year; imports were 23.36 billion US dollars, down 8.8% year-on-year; cumulative trade surplus was 243.89 billion US dollars, down 5.6% year-on-year.

Situation overview

Exports have declined for two consecutive years and returned to the level of 2014

Unlike expectations, in the last month of the year, the export volume reappeared sharply, and the decline was again more than 10% year-on-year. This made textile and apparel exports continue to decline in 2016 after a 4.9% decline in 2015, and the decline was expanded to 5.9%. This is the first time in two decades that China's textile and apparel exports have declined for the past 20 years, and the decline has been increasing year by year, indicating that China's textile and apparel exports have officially entered the turning point and entered the adjustment cycle.

The main reason for the decline in exports in 2016 include: slow economic recovery in major export markets, weak external demand; unstable external environment, increasing uncertainties affecting export; production costs continue to increase, further weakening the traditional advantages; industrial transfer lead our country in the international The share in the major markets has gradually narrowed; the prices of export commodities have fallen significantly.

Imports have continued to decline for three years, and the decline has expanded year by year. The decline was mainly due to the decrease in domestic demand and the fall in import prices.

Trade Structure

The diversification of trade methods has significantly expanded the comprehensive service of foreign trade.

With the continuous improvement and optimization of China's foreign trade policy environment, the development of new trade methods has gradually accelerated, becoming a bright color in exports.

In 2016, among the main trade methods, the export volume of general trade decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, which was better than the average; the processing trade volume decreased by 17.2% year-on-year; the border trade volume decreased by 18.2% year-on-year. Other trade methods, mainly based on tourism trade and market procurement trade, grew against the trend, and the volume of trade increased by 30.2% year-on-year, and the share in exports also rose to 6%, exceeding the small-scale trade on the border and forming an effective overall export. Pulling.

In terms of imports, the general trade volume and processing trade volume decreased by 5.5% and 15% respectively.

In 2016, the main characteristics of export business entities were the accelerated growth of export of foreign trade integrated service platform enterprises, and their share further expanded.

The export value of only one “one Datong” (including Zhejiang, Shenzhen, Shandong, and Fujian) reached 3.68 billion U.S. dollars, more than doubled year-on-year, accounting for 1.4% of the country’s exports. In the ranking of national export enterprises (non-group companies combined with statistics), the four “One Datong” enterprises ranked first, third, fifth and sixth respectively.

The share of private enterprises has further increased. In 2016, the share of private enterprises' exports accounted for 68.5%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the previous year, and the export volume decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, which was better than the average; state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises fell by 9.6 respectively. % and 11.7%.

Textile and garment industry as the traditional labor-intensive industries, with companies more scattered distribution, large-scale gap characteristics.

In recent years, with the adjustment of industrial structure, accelerate the transformation and upgrading, focusing on export business has improved. From the export data, the number of large enterprises and super-large enterprises with an annual export volume of more than 50 million US dollars has decreased by more than 70 from the previous year, but the proportion of export value has remained at 28%, which is the same as the previous year.

Business partner

Exports to major markets all down "along the way" countries are now growth to the EU's political and economic factors that cause exports were down by 2016 Europe into the troubled British referendum "off Europe", refugee crises and terrorist attacks frequently, so that the European economy even worse. Affected by this, China's textile and apparel exports to the EU fell for the second consecutive year. The export value was 49.5 billion U.S. dollars, down 8% year-on-year. The export volume of knitted garments and woven garments decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, the unit price dropped by 9.4%, and the export volume of household textiles decreased by 1.4%.

Exports to the United States have fallen for the first time in 20 years.

The United States is China's largest export market for textiles and clothing. From 1996 to 2015, China's exports to the United States expanded year by year and continued to grow. In the past 20 years, exports have expanded 14 times, and the United States' share of China's exports has also expanded to 17%. However, in 2016, China’s exports to the United States fell for the first time in 20 years, with exports of US$45.02 billion, down 5.7% year-on-year, which led to a negative pull on overall exports.

Textiles and clothing decreased by 2.5% and 6.8% respectively. Among the major export commodities, the total export volume of knitted garments and woven garments decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, the unit price fell by 3.9%, and the export volume of household textiles decreased by 1.5%.

The difference in the export of ASEAN clothing has dropped sharply.

In 2016, exports to ASEAN continued to fall, with exports of US$33.36 billion, down 6.9% year-on-year. Among them, textile exports increased by 1.9% year-on-year, and apparel exports fell by 23.9%. Among the key export commodities, the export volume of yarns and fabrics continued to increase, the export unit price fell, and the needle woven garments showed a decline in volume and price.

The 10 ASEAN countries showed mixed performance, with rapid growth in exports to the Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos, and a decline in five other countries. The Philippines replaced Vietnam as China's new export growth point to ASEAN, with exports increasing by 35.2% year-on-year and by 18.6% year-on-year.

Exports to Japan have been falling for four consecutive years. Due to the continued low operating of the Japanese economy and industrial transfer factors, China’s exports to Japan have declined for the fourth consecutive year, although the decline has been slower than in the previous two years. The annual export volume to Japan was US$20.33 billion, down 6.1% year-on-year. Among the key export commodities, the export volume of knitted garments and woven garments decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, and the export unit price decreased by 5%; the export volume of household textiles decreased by 3.7%.

Poor performance in emerging markets, “One Belt, One Road” is growing

The traditional market is sluggish and emerging markets are underperforming.

Affected by factors such as economic downturn and currency depreciation, the import demand of Brazil, South Africa and other countries has weakened. China’s exports have fallen by 29% and 16.4% respectively. Exports to Russia fell by 4.2% year-on-year, basically unchanged for India, and exports fell slightly by 0.1% year-on-year.

Driven by national policies, the “Belt and Road” countries are gradually becoming a new hot spot for foreign trade. In 2016, China’s exports to the “Belt and Road” countries totaled 89.15 billion US dollars, accounting for 33.4% of the total export value. China’s exports to half of the countries have increased, mainly in Central and Eastern Europe, West Asia, North Africa and ASEAN. Among them, Kyrgyzstan, driven by its good domestic economic situation, and its geographical advantage adjacent to Xinjiang, has the most outstanding performance. China’s exports to Kyrgyzstan surged 52.3% year-on-year, of which clothing exports increased by 76.2%.

In terms of imports, Vietnam ranked first in China's importing countries (regions), and its share of imports rose to 12.6%. In recent years, ASEAN’s share of China’s import share has expanded rapidly year by year, increasing by 10 percentage points in five years.

Three traditional markets accelerated the decline

In 2016, China's share in the three major markets continued to decline, and the rate of decline has accelerated compared to previous years, especially in the EU market and the US market.

According to EU customs statistics, from January to November 2016, the EU imported 115.33 billion US dollars of textiles and clothing from the world, which was the same as the same period of the previous year. The import value from China decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the import value from ASEAN increased by 6.6%.

China’s market share in the EU was 34.7%, down 2.3 percentage points from the same period last year. China’s market share in ASEAN was 10.4%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year. China has a market share of 38.1% in Bangladesh, Turkey, India and Pakistan, an increase of 1.4 percentage points.

According to US Customs statistics, in 2016, the United States imported 115.98 billion U.S. dollars of textiles and clothing from the world, down 5% year-on-year, of which imports from China fell by 7.8%, and imports from ASEAN fell by 3.8%. The market share of Chinese products in the US market was 36.9%, down 1.1 percentage points from 2015. ASEAN’s market share in the US is 19.94%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the same period in 2015.

According to Japanese customs statistics, in 2016, Japan’s cumulative imports were US$36.27 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year. The import value from China decreased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the import value from ASEAN increased by 7.6%. China’s share of the Japanese market continues to shrink to 61.8%, which is another 3 percentage points lower than in 2015. In the same period, ASEAN’s share in the Japanese market rose to 23.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points over 2015.

Export overview

Export prices of large categories of goods generally fell

Textiles and garments were exported at US$106.22 billion and US$16.10 billion, respectively, down 3% and 7.7% year-on-year respectively. From the analysis of the volume price index, the textile export quantity index was 105.2, the clothing was 98.8, the textile export price index was 92.1, and the clothing was 93.5. This suggests that the main reason for the decline in textile and apparel exports is the fall in prices.

Categories of goods, knitwear, woven garments total exports fell only 0.7%, but export prices fell by 7.5%; yarn exports increased by 11.7%, the export price fell 11.7%, of which chemical fiber yarn and cotton yarn The decline was the fastest; fabric exports increased by 5% year-on-year, and unit prices fell by 8.5%.

In recent years, the export prices of major categories of textiles and clothing have shown a downward trend. From 2012 to 2016, yarn prices have fallen by 30% year-on-year, fabrics have fallen by 9% year-on-year, and needle woven garments have fallen by 6.8% year-on-year, of which knitwear has fallen. 7.5%, woven garments fell 14.1%.

Exports in the eastern region all fell, Xinjiang achieved double-digit growth

More than 80% of the province's textile and apparel exports declined, with all provinces and cities in the eastern region falling, with an average year-on-year decline of 4.8%, which was better than the average; the central region performed better, with an average year-on-year decline of 3.1%, of which Hunan's exports were achieved year-on-year. 35% of the rapid growth; the western region fell the fastest year-on-year, with a drop of 19.6%.

Among the major exporting provinces and cities, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian and Shandong ranked the top five, down 5.9%, 3.5%, 0.6%, 8.2% and 1.8% respectively.

As a frontier area of ​​the “Belt and Road”, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region has built itself into the largest cotton production base and an important textile production base in China, relying on its geographical advantages and advantages of cotton resources. With the support of national policies, it has actively attracted investment and gradually expanded. Clothing industry. In 2016, Xinjiang's textile and garment exports were unique. The export volume reached US$5.24 billion, ranking 8th in the country, up 16.2% year-on-year, of which apparel increased by 19.5% year-on-year.

Import profile

Negative import volume and price lead to negative import growth

China's textile and apparel imports have declined for three consecutive years, and the decline has been expanding year by year. In 2016, the import value of textiles and apparels decreased by 8.8% year-on-year, of which textiles fell by 12.1% and clothing increased by 0.9%. From the analysis of the volume price index, the textile import quantity index was 88.6, the clothing was 113.1, the textile import price index was 99.2, and the clothing was 89.2. This shows that the decline in textile imports is mainly caused by the decline in imports, while clothing is mainly affected by the price decline.

Among the main commodities, the import volume of yarns and fabrics decreased by a large margin, among which cotton yarns experienced a rapid decline of 16%; the import volume of needle woven garments increased by 5.7%, and the unit price of imports fell by 3.9%.

In recent years, except for fabrics, the import prices of other major categories of goods have dropped significantly: from 2012 to 2016, yarn import prices fell by 18.5%, needle woven garments fell by 34.9%, of which knitwear fell by 18.1%, woven Clothing is slowing down to 46%.

Imports of cotton have been greatly reduced, and the spot price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has been greatly expanded.

In 2016, affected by factors such as weaker downstream demand, replacement of cotton yarn imports and large domestic cotton stocks, cotton imports continued to decline. In the same year, only 896,000 tons were imported, a further reduction of nearly 40% from the previous year. The United States, Australia and India are the three major sources of cotton imports in China. The unit price of cotton imports increased slightly in the fluctuations, with an average annual price of 1750 US dollars / ton, a slight increase of 0.2%.

In 2016, affected by the economic environment and policy adjustments, domestic cotton production continued to shrink and cotton prices fluctuated abnormally. Textile industry basically stable, demand for cotton tends to improve. Cotton industry has entered a critical period of transformation and upgrading of supply-side structural reforms took important steps to round out actively traded cotton reserves, destocking achieve the desired effect; Xinjiang cotton price target steady implementation of the pilot reform, basic earnings Xinjiang cotton farmers are protected. In 2016, the spot price of China's cotton fluctuated upwards, and the fluctuations increased. Especially between June and September, domestic cotton prices fluctuated greatly and the situation was complicated for many years. The annual average price of China's cotton price index standard (CCIndex3128B) was 13,677 yuan / ton, up 437 yuan / ton, the end of China's cotton price index was 15,798 yuan / ton, the year rose 2,876 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%.

The trend of the international cotton market is roughly the same as that of the domestic market, but the volatility is relatively flat, and the spot price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is expanding. After October 2016, the spot price difference between domestic and foreign stocks has widened significantly. To break the yuan under Chinese cotton price index (CCIn Juan dex3128B) and imports cotton price index FCIndexM1% tariff, for example, both the post after the National Day break 2,000 yuan / ton, as of the end of 2016 around this price fluctuations. According to the survey, 2,000 yuan / ton is the critical point of the difference between inside and outside. If this price is exceeded, the number of foreign cotton imports will tend to increase.

Export outlook

At present, the global economy is still at a low level, and the weak situation is difficult to improve in the short term. The possibility of rapid recovery of demand in major export markets is low. The domestic economy is entering the L-shaped low-speed growth zone, and the GDP growth rate is expected to be lowered to 6.5%. At the same time, the increase in production factor costs and the acceleration of order transfer will continue. The international environmental fluctuations are frequent, and the uncontrollable factors are gradually increasing. In the new year, the “changes” in politics, economy, and society will become the new normal and pose challenges to export growth.

Despite many unfavorable conditions, it is not necessary to be too pessimistic about the export of textiles and clothing in 2017. 2017 is an important year, "Thirteen Five" the good policy to be implemented, with the deepening and accelerating the pace of business transformation and upgrading of supply side reforms, foreign trade structure will be further optimized; the advantages of large-scale industrial clusters increasingly manifest; encourage Measures such as “ going out ” will be gradually implemented, and the global layout capability of enterprises will be further improved; the market structure will be optimized, and more countries along the “Belt and Road” will become new growth points. China's textile and garment industry has entered a period of great development and major adjustment. Due to the low base, it is expected that China's textile and apparel exports will not rebound rapidly in 2017, nor will it fall sharply. It will be basically the same as 2016 or achieve a small increase.